Ferrari N.V. (RACE) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Apr 5, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Ferrari posted strong 2025 results (FCF +50%), reiterated high‑margin 2026 guidance, and is executing large multi‑year buybacks (~€3.5B through 2030); with ~11% 21‑day price momentum and supportive luxury demand, RACE offers a technically extended but well‑funded short‑term upside trade.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: • High margins • Strong FCF • Rich valuation Ferrari delivers exceptional profitability and cash generation (ROE 43%, ROIC 24%, FCF €1.864B) with manageable net leverage but is priced richly (P/E ~34.6, EV/EBIT ~27) and carries sizable intangibles that modestly limit flexibility.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: • Short-term bounce • Neutral momentum • Resistance failures Support Level: $315–$317 Resistance Level: $346–$358 RACE has bounced modestly above its last month average near $333.7 with a neutral RSI, but repeated failures around $350–$360 and the down-leg into March mean a decisive break of $315–$317 support or $346–$358 resistance will likely define the next trend.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: • Analyst upgrades • Share buybacks • EV execution risk Analysts' upgrades, active buybacks and strong brand economics bolster Ferrari's long-term case even as mixed institutional flows, EV/execution risks and geopolitical shocks fuel near-term volatility.
AI Summary
Reframe Ferrari as a high‑margin, cash‑return compounder where buyback execution and sustaining 2030 margin floors matter more than unit growth — monitor industrial FCF vs buyback cadence and early EV pricing/residual evidence as the primary catalysts. Key risk: persistent margin compression from tariffs, FX or EV residual disappointments would rapidly expose the premium multiples and force reallocation away from shareholder returns.
Description
Ferrari N.V., through its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, manufactures and sells high-performance and luxury road and racing cars, including limited-edition and track-focused models. The company also provides aftermarket services and parts, offers financing and leasing to customers and dealers, and licenses its brand across lifestyle products and theme parks; it operates museums in Maranello and Modena and manages racetracks. Ferrari distributes vehicles and branded goods via a global dealer and retail network and online, and is headquartered in Maranello, Italy, with origins dating to 1947.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13 | Feb 20 | RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Ferrari posted strong 2025 results (FCF +50%), reiterated high‑margin 2026 guidance, and is executing large multi‑year buybacks (~€3.5B through 2030); with ~11% 21‑day price momentum and supportive luxury demand, RACE offers a technically extended but well‑funded short‑term upside trade. | Closed | -3.2% |
| Sep 8 | Sep 15 | RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Ferrari delivered steady Q2 results with order backlog through 2027 and ongoing share buyback execution; shares gained ~8.9% over 3 weeks, trading above the 21-day average with room below upper Bollinger Band, supported by strong demand and product launches despite high valuation and sector headwinds. | Closed | -0.0% |