Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Apr 11, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Par Pacific is a refiner with explosive near-term upside potential: FY2025 net income $369M and adj. EBITDA $633M, a 10% share-count reduction via repurchases at ~$19, and powerful crack-spread tailwinds from the crude spike have driven a ~45% 21âday rally, while valuation remains low (EV/EBIT ~6x), creating room for further upside if margins hold.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠Strong ROE ⢠Robust FCF ⢠High inventory PARR appears materially undervalued with strong ROE and robust free cash flow but carries meaningful risk from high leverage and bloated inventory that constrain liquidity and efficiency.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Higher highs ⢠Higher lows ⢠Elevated volatility Support Level: $61.00 Resistance Level: $64â$66 Stock is in a clear short-term uptrend (53.14 â 62.77, ~+18%) trading ~4â5% above the last month simple moving average, with higher highs/lows and $61.00 near-term support but facing resistance at $64â$66 and elevated volatility that could quickly reverse momentum.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠Buyback catalyst ⢠Margin tailwinds ⢠Temporary outages Analysts are bullish on Par Pacific for strong refining margins, geographic advantages, and a $250M buyback despite a one-off earnings miss, mixed insider/institutional activity, and upside from tax assets and SAF projects.
AI Summary
Par Pacific has transitioned into a leveraged cashâflow engineâso the investment case now depends more on sustained crack spreads and disciplined capital allocation (buybacks vs. debt paydown) than on crude cycles. Actionable stance: neutral/holdâaccumulate only after several consecutive quarters of FCF consistency or a meaningful pullback toward the ~$47 fairâvalue and confirm onâtime SAF/tax monetization execution.
Description
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is an energy and infrastructure company that operates through three reporting segments: Refining, Retail and Logistics. Its refining operations run three refineries that produce a range of transportation fuels, asphalt and related products for regional markets including Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, Wyoming and South Dakota. The retail business runs 119 fuel and convenience locations under several brand names in Hawaii, Washington and Idaho, while the logistics segment manages terminals, pipelines, marine and trucking assets, storage facilities and other distribution infrastructure serving island markets and inland sites; the company is headquartered in Houston and was incorporated in 1984 (name changed in 2015).
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23 | Mar 30 | PARR | Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | Par Pacific is a refiner with explosive near-term upside potential: FY2025 net income $369M and adj. EBITDA $633M, a 10% share-count reduction via repurchases at ~$19, and powerful crack-spread tailwinds from the crude spike have driven a ~45% 21âday rally, while valuation remains low (EV/EBIT ~6x), creating room for further upside if margins hold. | Closed | +11.7% |
| Mar 13 | Mar 20 | PARR | Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | Refiner with strong cash and buyback catalysts: 2025 net income $369M, adjusted EBITDA $633M and ~$296M FCF support a new $250M buyback after retiring ~10% of shares in 2025. SAF partnership with Hawaiian/Alaska Airlines and distillateâheavy exposure benefit from current refining spreads. The stock is up ~30% over 21 days and ~18% above its 21âday SMA, making it a highâconviction nearâterm momentum play tied to oil and buyback execution. | Closed | +14.1% |